The Africa Energy Indaba saw South Africa’s Electricity Minister reaffirm the nation’s commitment to a diversified energy mix, sparking a crucial conversation about the country’s path forward.
Energy expert Chris Yelland, in a recent interview, provided valuable insights into the realities of South Africa’s energy landscape, offering a grounded perspective amidst the political rhetoric.
Renewables Leading the Charge, But Coal Remains:
The minister’s emphasis on “adding” to the energy mix, rather than “subtracting” from coal, highlights the delicate balancing act South Africa faces. Yelland confirmed that while political statements about coal’s longevity persist, the practical reality is that wind, solar PV, and battery energy storage are the driving forces of new generation capacity. These technologies are “financeable,” “deliverable quickly,” and represent the bulk of new energy coming online.
However, Yelland cautioned against expecting a rapid phase-out of coal. South Africa’s “legacy coal” infrastructure will remain a significant part of the energy landscape for at least another decade or two. Similarly, the extended lifespan of the Koeberg nuclear power plant ensures its continued contribution to the energy mix.
The Promise and Practicalities of New Technologies:
The conversation inevitably turned to emerging technologies like small modular reactors (SMRs). While promising, Yelland emphasized their current lack of commercial availability, licensing, and clearly defined costs. He suggested that SMRs are likely a decade or more away from becoming a viable option for South Africa.
In the immediate term, the focus remains on renewables, battery storage, pumped water storage, and gas-to-power as flexible generation solutions. These technologies are crucial for mitigating the variability of wind and solar PV and ensuring a reliable energy supply.
Transmission Infrastructure: The Unsung Hero:
The rapid expansion of renewable energy necessitates a critical focus on transmission infrastructure. Yelland highlighted the need for significant investment in grid upgrades and interconnectivity, both within South Africa and across the African continent. The minister’s announcement of the “Africa electricity pool” under the G20 energy working group underscores the importance of regional collaboration.
However, Yelland also pointed to the potential of distributed renewable energy and battery storage to alleviate the burden on centralized transmission infrastructure. By deploying rooftop solar, village-level microgrids, and other decentralized solutions, South Africa can “leapfrog” traditional models and improve energy access, particularly in underserved areas.
The minister’s assertion that gas is a “destination” rather than a “transitional” fuel source drew a skeptical response from Yelland.
He pointed to the high cost of imported liquefied natural gas (LNG), particularly in South Africa, which lacks significant indigenous gas resources. The stalled development of gas fields off the southern Cape coast further complicates the picture.
While Yelland acknowledged the need for gas-to-power for flexible generation, he questioned its viability as a baseload or mid-merit energy source. He suggested that imported LNG is more likely to find applications in industrial settings than in large-scale electricity generation.
The recent trip of Koeberg’s unit two highlighted the fragility of South Africa’s energy system. Yelland described the incident as an “unfortunate mistake” with potentially significant consequences, including an increased risk of load shedding and regional blackouts. The need to start up the Ankerlig power plant, which relies on costly diesel, further underscores the challenges of maintaining grid stability.
South Africa’s energy future is a complex puzzle, requiring a pragmatic approach that balances environmental goals with economic realities.
While renewables offer a promising path forward, the country must navigate the challenges of transitioning away from fossil fuels while ensuring a reliable and affordable energy supply.
