Kenya’s grid hit consecutive record highs this year as national demand climbed into the low-2,300 megawatt (MW) range and operators relied on a mix of geothermal baseload, flexible hydropower, and cross-border imports to keep the lights on.
Kenya Power’s National Control Centre recorded a system peak of 2,362.28 MW on 23 July 2025, and KenGen reported a marginally higher peak of 2,363.41 MW at 8:00 pm on 5 August 2025. Together, state generators and regional trading partners supplied the extra megawatts that prevented widespread load-shedding during the episodes.
How the Peak Was Met
At the operational level, the supply response had three parts. First, Kenya’s geothermal plants provided firm, dispatchable base output that formed the backbone of supply during the evening peaks. Second, where water conditions allowed, hydropower units were ramped up to deliver flexible, short-term energy to cover fast increases in demand. Third, Kenya drew on imported power under regional interconnector arrangements tapping Ethiopia and other neighbours as part of dispatch balancing and to bolster reserves.
This three-pronged approach was enough to meet the record demand without rationing that could have slowed industrial production or inconvenienced households.
Numbers That Mattered
The timing and scale of the peaks mattered because they arrived while the system’s buffer had been narrowing. Kenya Power said the surge coincided with the company connecting 401,848 new customers during the financial year ending 30 June 2025, a rapid expansion of on-grid load that raised the baseline energy requirement.
Imports have also been rising. In early 2025, electricity inflows into Kenya climbed sharply, with quarterly imports reported to be more than 30% higher than the previous year. These cross-border flows increasingly act as a cushion against rising domestic demand.
Why Geothermal, Hydro and Imports Together?
Each source plays a different technical role.
- Geothermal is firm capacity steady day and night, and reliable to carry base demand.
- Hydropower is flexible, though dependent on reservoir levels, and ideal for covering short-term spikes.
- Imports allow Kenya to tap surplus power from neighbours and strengthen the reserve margin when domestic sources alone would struggle.
During the July–August peaks, KenGen increased geothermal output while grid controllers dispatched more hydro and scheduled imports to stabilise the system.
What Pushed Demand Up So Fast
Three structural factors explain the sudden surge:
- Grid Expansion: The last-mile electrification push brought nearly half a million new customers onto the grid, boosting base consumption.
- Seasonality: The cold season raised household electricity use for heating, hot water, and indoor appliances, pushing demand higher in the evenings.
- Electrification Policies: Growing uptake of electric cooking, early-stage EV charging, and expanding industrial loads especially new data centres are steadily shifting energy demand from fuels to electricity.
Kenya Power pointed directly to new connections, seasonal cold weather, and electrification as the main drivers of the peak.
Also read: How Electric Cooking and EVs Are Driving Rising Power Demand
System Risk and the Narrowing Cushion
Operating close to peak capacity increases grid vulnerability. In September 2024, for example, a transmission trip and generator losses cascaded into a partial blackout affecting much of the country.
With reserves shrinking, even minor technical issues could trigger widespread outages. Regulators have repeatedly stressed the need to add new firm capacity, install storage, and modernise transmission lines to prevent the system from running on such thin margins.
Short-Term Fixes and Medium-Term Strategy
In the short term, grid operators relied on existing tools:
- Rescheduling generators dispatch more geothermal and hydro.
- Increasing imports under regional contracts.
- Advising large industrial consumers to manage demand voluntarily.
In the medium term, Kenya is focused on adding firm, dispatchable capacity through geothermal expansion, hydro upgrades, and battery storage systems. Transmission modernization is also a priority, to avoid cascading failures like those in 2024. KenGen is currently fast-tracking geothermal drilling in the Rift Valley, while the Ministry of Energy is working on storage and transmission projects.
What This Means for Users and Investors
- Households: For ordinary consumers, record peaks don’t always translate to blackouts, but they do increase the risk of outages and could lead to higher bills if expensive backup thermal power is used.
- Industry: For manufacturers and digital companies, rising demand is both an opportunity and a risk. Reliable demand growth makes large-scale investment more attractive, but sensitive industries may continue investing in captive generation and storage until grid stability improves.
- Investors: Rising demand highlights clear opportunities in geothermal, solar, wind, battery storage, and transmission upgrades. Regional power trading also becomes more attractive as demand grows.
What to Watch Next
Observers will focus on three key indicators:
- Reserve Margin: Whether the country can rebuild a healthy buffer between demand and supply.
- Import Volumes: Especially the scale and reliability of imports from Ethiopia.
- New Firm Capacity: The pace of geothermal projects, battery storage deployments, and grid reinforcements.
If demand continues rising faster than supply, Kenya risks a cycle of emergency measures and higher consumer costs.
Also read: Electricity Consumption Surges, Pushing Kenya’s Grid to Record Levels
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
1. Why did Kenya record its highest electricity demand in 2025?
Because of rapid grid expansion, cold-season demand, and growing adoption of electric cooking, EVs, and industrial loads.
2. Which sources supplied power during the peak?
Kenya relied mainly on geothermal, hydro, and imports from neighbouring countries.
3. Is Kenya generating enough power to meet demand?
Yes, but the reserve margin is narrowing. The grid is increasingly operating close to maximum capacity.
4. Why are imports necessary?
Imports provide an additional cushion during high demand and reduce pressure on domestic generation.
5. What risks does the grid face if demand keeps rising?
Higher chances of blackouts, increased reliance on expensive backup power, and vulnerability to cascading failures.
6. What is being done to strengthen the grid?
Expansion of geothermal, hydro upgrades, regional imports, new transmission projects, and deployment of battery storage.
7. How does this affect consumers?
Households may face higher bills if thermal plants are used. Businesses sensitive to outages are investing in backup systems.
8. What opportunities exist for investors?
Geothermal, storage, transmission, and regional power trading are all growth areas in Kenya’s energy sector.
