Africa’s burgeoning solar sector is a beacon of hope for energy access and economic development, yet a significant discrepancy in reported installation figures is casting a shadow over its true progress.
In 2025, the Global Solar Council (GSC) announced a record 4.5 GW of new solar PV capacity, a 54% increase year-on-year.
However, the African Solar Industry Association (AFSIA) reported a starkly different figure: 2.4 GW, representing a year-on-year decline.
This “solar data mystery” is not merely an academic debate; it has profound implications for investor confidence and the strategic deployment of capital across the continent.
The divergence in these figures highlights a critical challenge in accurately tracking solar deployment in Africa, particularly within the rapidly expanding distributed sector.
The GSC’s report acknowledges that while utility-scale projects accounted for 56% of installed capacity, the remaining 44% from distributed solar is “significantly underreported” and “harder to track”.
This segment, encompassing rooftop, commercial, and off-grid installations, is often decentralized and less formally documented, making comprehensive data collection a formidable task.
The sheer volume of 18.2 GW of overseas solar modules imported into Africa in 2025, substantially exceeding utility-scale projections, further underscores the scale of this untracked distributed boom.
AFSIA leadership has openly conceded the difficulties in obtaining precise deployment data, suggesting that the continent is likely installing more capacity than their figures indicate.
This transparency is crucial, but the persistent gap between reported and actual installations creates a perception problem. For investors, particularly those new to the African market, conflicting data can breed uncertainty, making it harder to assess market potential, evaluate risks, and justify significant capital commitments.
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The high stakes here involve not just statistical accuracy, but the very flow of investment needed to meet Africa’s ambitious energy targets.
The implications extend beyond finance. Accurate data is the bedrock of effective policy.
Governments and development agencies rely on robust figures to design incentives, allocate resources, and measure progress towards energy access and climate goals. If a substantial portion of solar deployment remains invisible in official statistics, it risks misinforming policy decisions, potentially leading to suboptimal strategies that fail to capitalize on the true momentum of the distributed sector.
Addressing this data disconnect requires a concerted effort from all stakeholders. This includes developing more sophisticated tracking methodologies for distributed solar, fostering greater collaboration between industry associations and national energy regulators, and investing in digital platforms that can aggregate real-time installation data.
The goal is not to discredit existing reports, but to build a more comprehensive and transparent picture of Africa’s solar landscape. Only with a clear and unified understanding of the market’s true size and dynamics can Africa fully leverage its solar potential, attract the necessary investment, and accelerate its journey towards a sustainable and electrified future.
The mystery of Africa’s solar data is a challenge that must be solved to unlock the continent’s full energy promise.
By Thuita Gatero, Managing Editor, Africa Digest News. He specializes in conversations around data centers, AI, cloud infrastructure, and energy.
