Africa announced 74,461 MW of energy projects in 2025, but only delivered 14,589 MW, about 19.6%. In school terms, that’s a Grade E performance. If Africa continues installing only 19.6% of announced projects, then over the next decade the continent would deliver just 145 GW out of 744 GW promised, leaving nearly 600 GW stuck in announcements.
Broader modelling (pre‑2030 Outlook) finds Africa would need to add about 250 GW of new generation capacity by 2030 to keep up with demand growth, roughly 25 GW/year on average over the rest of this decade.
The Electron Intelligence report tracking $13.84 billion in energy investment across 306 deals reveals a hard truth: announcements do not equal execution.
Mega-projects like Inga III (4,800 MW) and Sun King hybrid programs (4,000 MW) inflate pipeline totals while remaining trapped behind what the report calls “permission gates” the regulatory, financial, and logistical barriers that separate planned projects from under-construction ones.
What moves projects from announcement to reality? The report identifies four recurring deliverability constraints:
- Foreign exchange convertibility pathways ; Many energy projects rely on imported equipment and financing in USD or EUR. Limited local currency convertibility can stall procurement and delay installation.
- Payment collections; Utilities must collect revenue efficiently. Weak billing or collection systems can reduce cash flow, making operators hesitant to expand capacity or maintain infrastructure.
- Grid access and curtailment exposure; New plants need reliable grid connections. Even commissioned capacity may sit idle if the grid cannot absorb it, or if renewable generation faces curtailment due to transmission limits.
- Permitting readiness; Regulatory delays, environmental approvals, and land acquisition issues can push projects back by years, turning announcements into unbuilt megawatts.
These are structural problems. A solar farm cannot be financed if the country cannot guarantee that revenue can be converted and moved across borders. A wind project cannot proceed if the grid operator will curtail its output. A power plant cannot break ground if permits remain stuck in bureaucracy.
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The $13.84 billion invested in 2025 concentrated where these constraints had been solved. Sovereign-backed programs like the African Development Bank’s $500 million Nigeria reform package provided government assurance on collections and FX convertibility.
Repeatable platforms like those attracting $2.41 billion in enabler capital systematized the permitting and grid-access process, reducing friction with each new project. Large-ticket transactions like Geregu Power’s $750 million deal came with offtake agreements that locked in revenue and grid access before financial close.
For solution providers and project developers, this gap between announcement and delivery is opportunity. The binding constraint is the ability to structure deals that clear the permission gates.
Companies that solve FX convertibility, that streamline permitting, that aggregate grid access, or that standardize payment collections are not competing on price. They are competing on the ability to move projects from pipeline to reality.
The five-to-one gap will persist until these structural constraints are systematically addressed. Africa has the solar resource, the wind potential, and the capital. What it needs is the infrastructure, financial, regulatory, and operational to convert announcements into electrons flowing through grids.
By Thuita Gatero, Managing Editor, Africa Digest News. He specializes in conversations around data centers, AI, cloud infrastructure, and energy.
