At first glance, South Africa appears to be Africa’s renewable energy leader. It is announcing multi-billion-rand investments, building gigawatts of wind and solar, and attracting global developers through competitive procurement programmes. But look beyond the headlines, and a different picture emerges. South Africa is growing faster. Kenya is already greener. The two countries are pursuing very different energy transitions because they are solving very different problems.
South Africa’s renewable sector is expanding at a pace unmatched anywhere else on the continent. By 2026, the country has installed approximately 17–18 GW of renewable capacity, spanning solar PV, wind, hydro and concentrated solar power. The market is expected to grow from roughly 18 GW in 2026 to more than 31 GW by 2031, representing one of Africa’s fastest-growing renewable energy markets.
Several factors are driving this expansion:
- Massive utility-scale wind and solar projects.
- A booming commercial and industrial (C&I) solar market.
- Large battery storage procurements.
- Continued investment through the Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme (REIPPPP).
Unlike many African markets, South Africa is adding renewable capacity in multiple gigawatts every year. Kenya tells a very different story. Its electricity system is much smaller, with installed capacity of roughly 3.2–3.3 GW, but the majority of that capacity already comes from renewable sources. Today, around 80–90% of Kenya’s installed electricity capacity is renewable, making it one of the cleanest grids anywhere in the developing world.
Instead of replacing fossil fuels, Kenya has spent decades building:
- Geothermal power.
- Hydroelectric generation.
- Wind farms.
- Increasing amounts of solar power.
The result is a power system where renewables are already the norm rather than the future. The contrast between the two countries begins with their existing electricity systems.
South Africa
South Africa remains heavily dependent on coal. Coal still supplies the majority of electricity generation, meaning renewable energy is primarily being added to replace ageing fossil fuel infrastructure while improving energy security.
Its transition is therefore focused on:
- Solar PV.
- Wind power.
- Battery storage.
- Grid expansion.
The objective is to reduce dependence on coal without compromising reliability.
Kenya
Kenya faces a different challenge. Its electricity system is already largely renewable. Rather than replacing coal, Kenya’s priority is expanding capacity to meet growing electricity demand while improving system reliability.
That means continued investment in:
- Geothermal development.
- Hydropower.
- Wind.
- Solar.
- Battery storage.
The focus is less about decarbonisation and more about strengthening an already clean electricity system. South Africa’s renewable market is increasingly driven by scale. Large procurement programmes, private power purchase agreements, energy traders and commercial customers have created a highly competitive investment environment. Projects are measured in hundreds of megawatts or even gigawatts. Kenya’s approach remains more targeted.
Expansion typically occurs through:
- KenGen developments.
- Independent Power Producers (IPPs).
- Least Cost Power Development Plan (LCPDP) projects.
Many projects centre on geothermal fields, specific wind farms or utility-scale solar plants rather than continuous multi-gigawatt procurement rounds. Measured purely by annual capacity additions, South Africa is well ahead. The country is adding renewable energy at a pace that reflects the urgency of replacing coal generation, addressing electricity shortages and meeting rapidly growing private-sector demand.
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Its renewable market has become one of the largest on the continent. Measured by the percentage of electricity coming from renewables, Kenya remains one of Africa’s strongest performers. Its challenge is ensuring there is enough of it. Future investment will therefore focus on expanding generation while maintaining the high renewable share that already defines Kenya’s electricity system.
South Africa is building more renewable capacity each year, driven by the need to replace coal, improve energy security and satisfy growing private-sector demand. Kenya, meanwhile, already operates one of Africa’s cleanest electricity systems, with renewables forming the backbone of its grid long before many countries began their energy transition.
