By Jemosop Faith
Africa stands at a pivotal moment. Coal powers 40% of electricity in sub-Saharan Africa, but its days are numbered as climate pressures mount. The Rockefeller Foundation’s Coal to Clean Credit Initiative (CCCI) promises a novel solution: using carbon credits to retire coal plants early and fund Africa clean energy.
Can this initiative reshape the continent’s energy landscape, or is it a well-intentioned but insufficient fix?
What Does the Rockefeller Foundation’s Initiative Mean for Africa?
The Rockefeller Foundation’s CCCI is a bold bet on climate finance. Launched in 2023 with the Global Energy Alliance for People and Planet (GEAPP), it aims to retire 60 coal plants globally by 2030, with Africa as a key focus.
The initiative uses high-integrity carbon credits to incentivize early coal plant closures, replacing them with renewables like solar and wind while supporting affected workers and communities. In Africa, where South Africa alone relies on coal for 83% of its power, CCCI is scoping projects in South Africa and other coal-heavy nations.
A pilot in the Philippines, retiring a 246 MW coal plant by 2030, offers a blueprint, potentially avoiding 19 million tons of CO2. For Africa, CCCI could unlock $110 billion in investments and create 29,000 jobs, aligning with Just Energy Transition Partnerships (JETPs) for a socially equitable shift.
Carbon credits could be a game-changer. By monetizing emissions reductions from early coal plant closures, they provide financial incentives for utilities to switch to renewables. In Africa, where 600 million people lack electricity, affordable clean energy is critical.
The CCCI’s methodology, backed by partners like RMI and South Pole, ensures credits are verifiable, with revenues funding clean power and community support. A South African pilot could mirror the Philippines’ success, where carbon finance covers early retirement costs, renewable replacements, and worker retraining.
Africa’s solar potential, at 10 TW, and wind potential of 180 GW make renewables viable. However, high upfront costs for solar ($0.10–0.15/kWh) and grid constraints slow adoption. Carbon credits could bridge this gap, but critics warn of greenwashing, emphasizing the need for robust standards.
How Will the Coal Phase-Out Impact the Continent’s Energy Economy?
The coal transition will reshape Africa’s energy economy. Coal supports 200,000 jobs in South Africa, and phasing it out risks unemployment without retraining. The CCCI prioritizes a “just transition,” channeling carbon credit revenues to retrain workers for renewable energy roles, as seen in the Philippines pilot, which supports 726,000 people near the SLTEC plant.
Renewables could create 20 million jobs continent-wide by 2030, with solar and wind projects driving economic growth. South Africa’s $8.5 billion JETP shows global support, but Eskom’s $22 billion debt and grid upgrades costing $11 billion strain budgets.
Coal plant closures may raise short-term energy prices, as seen in Zambia’s tariff hikes, but long-term renewable costs are falling, with solar at $30/MWh in optimal conditions. The shift demands massive climate finance $2.6 trillion by 2050 to balance economic stability and green growth.
What Role Can Businesses Play in This Transition to Renewable Energy?
African businesses are pivotal. Companies can invest in distributed renewable energy (DRE), like Kenya’s M-KOPA, serving 1 million solar households. Carbon credit markets, projected to reach $50 billion by 2030, offer revenue for firms adopting clean energy. In Nigeria, Arnergy’s solar mini-grids power SMEs, cutting diesel costs by 30%.
Businesses can also buy carbon credits to offset emissions, as Microsoft does with African projects. South Africa’s Sasol is exploring green hydrogen, leveraging carbon markets for funding. However, access to finance remains a barrier, with only 2% of global clean energy investment reaching Africa. Public-private partnerships, like GEAPP’s $150 million in sub-Saharan Africa, can unlock capital, enabling businesses to drive the transition.
Are Carbon Markets the Missing Link in Africa’s Renewable Future?
Carbon markets could be transformative, but they’re not a silver bullet. Africa’s 8,700 TWh Green Power Gap by 2050 demands 400 GW of renewables. Carbon credits, as CCCI demonstrates, can fund coal plant retirements and renewable projects, with transition credits costing $30–$41 each.
Africa’s carbon market potential is $6 billion annually, yet only 2% of global carbon credits originate here. Challenges include weak regulatory frameworks and skepticism about credit integrity. The African Carbon Markets Initiative (ACMI) aims to generate 300 million credits annually by 2030, but scaling requires global buyer trust and local capacity. Carbon markets must complement, not replace, direct investments like Zambia’s $2 billion solar deal.
The Rockefeller Foundation’s CCCI could ignite Africa’s coal transition, leveraging carbon credits to retire coal plants and fund renewables. With 80% of Africa’s coal plants in emerging economies, the stakes are high.
Carbon markets offer a path to finance clean energy, but success hinges on robust standards, equitable job transitions, and massive investment of $2.6 trillion by 2050.
African businesses can lead, but need access to capital. Carbon credits aren’t the whole answer, but they’re a vital spark.
