Nigeria’s Distributed Access through Renewable Energy Scale-up (DARES) programme is falling significantly behind its electricity-access targets, with about 5.3 million people reached so far against a target of 16.2 million by the end of 2028. That leaves roughly 11 million more people to reach in just over two years. The programme is a major part of Nigeria’s strategy to expand electricity access through distributed renewable energy, particularly in communities that remain poorly served by the national grid. Progress on solar home systems (SHS) has been faster than other components but remains well below plan. About 1.046 million systems have been deployed, compared with a target of 2.75 million, putting delivery at roughly 38% of the planned total. The figures highlight the scale of the implementation challenge facing Nigeria: while distributed solar is expanding, deployment must accelerate substantially if the programme is to meet its 2028 objectives.
In response, the World Bank has restructured DARES, increasing its renewable-energy capacity target from 465 MW to 811 MW. A significant share of the additional capacity will come from interconnected mini-grids, with the programme targeting 434 MW from these systems compared with 56 MW from isolated mini-grids. The restructuring also makes an additional $200 million in performance-based financing available, linked to progress on regulatory reforms covering issues such as mini-grid licensing, community rights and capacity limits. The programme’s importance extends beyond household connections. DARES is also intended to provide electricity to businesses, public institutions and productive-use equipment, helping distributed renewable energy become an economic-development tool rather than simply an alternative source of household lighting. The wider programme aims to reach more than 17.5 million people and support approximately 237,000 micro, small and medium-sized enterprises, potentially allowing reliable electricity to support refrigeration, irrigation, manufacturing, digital services and other income-generating activities.
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But the widening gap between targets and delivery also raises questions about how Nigeria measures the success of its energy transition. Connection numbers alone do not guarantee affordable or economically useful electricity. Concerns around affordability, community participation and productive demand suggest that projects need to be designed around whether people and businesses can actually use and pay for the power. The World Bank’s restructuring therefore represents more than an increase in capacity: it is an attempt to accelerate DARES while shifting greater attention toward mini-grids, regulation and the economic productivity of electricity access.
