South Africa’s power-sector emissions fell 19% in 2025 to about 148 million tonnes of CO₂, the largest annual decline in BloombergNEF’s Economic Transition Scenario. Yet coal still supplied roughly 78% of the country’s electricity. The contradiction tells a more interesting story than a simple coal-to-renewables switch: South Africa is cutting emissions even while coal remains the backbone of its power system.
The biggest change has been the growth of solar and wind. Their combined share of electricity generation rose from just 2% in 2015 to 13% in 2025. At the same time, South Africa’s older coal fleet is gradually shrinking, while newer units at Kusile have improved the efficiency of coal generation. BNEF says coal generation itself increased slightly in 2025, by about 1%, showing that falling emissions do not necessarily mean coal generation immediately collapses.
The next shift may come from businesses rather than government. BNEF expects corporate power-purchase agreements to account for 73% of the 2.3 GW of new solar and wind capacity expected in 2026, overtaking public procurement for the first time. Companies are increasingly buying renewable power because they need reliable electricity, competitive costs and greater control over their energy supply. Climate targets matter, but keeping factories and mines powered matters too.
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The longer-term numbers show how significant the transition could become. Under BNEF’s Economic Transition Scenario, power-sector emissions fall another 52% from 2025 levels by 2050, reaching about 71 MtCO₂. Solar and wind would provide around 69% of annual generation while coal falls to roughly 21%. Under a more aggressive net-zero pathway, emissions could fall to about 1.9 MtCO₂ by 2050, requiring a much faster decline in coal and a much larger role for renewables and storage.
South Africa’s experience shows that an energy transition can begin with new generation growing faster, the old fleet becoming less dominant and businesses finding their own routes to cheaper and more reliable power. The bigger challenge is now the grid: more renewable generation will require more transmission capacity and flexibility to connect it. South Africa may therefore have solved one part of its transition problem — reducing emissions — while creating the next one: building a power system capable of carrying what comes next.
