South Africa’s energy transition is no longer simply about adding more electricity. The country’s new Integrated Resource Plan (IRP 2025) determines what gets built, when it gets built, and why it gets priority. Rather than relying purely on whichever technology produces the cheapest electricity, the plan adopts what government calls a “Balanced Plan”, one that weighs affordability alongside grid reliability, energy security and emissions reduction. The result is a roadmap that shapes investment decisions across the country’s electricity sector for the next 15 years.
IRP 2025 sets clear capacity targets that effectively determine where both public procurement and private investment will flow. By 2039, South Africa plans to add:
- 34 GW of new wind capacity
- 25 GW of utility-scale solar PV
- 16 GW of distributed generation, largely rooftop solar
- 8.5 GW of battery storage
- 16 GW of gas-fired generation
- 5.2 GW of new nuclear capacity
At the same time, coal begins a managed decline, with around 8 GW scheduled for retirement by 2030 and a further 15 GW by 2042, reducing coal’s dominance of the electricity system. These targets serve as the blueprint for future procurement programmes, signalling where developers, investors and equipment suppliers should focus. IRP 2025 does not expect every project to be built immediately. Instead, it establishes clear milestones.
By 2030
The immediate priorities include:
- Over 11 GW of utility-scale solar
- More than 7 GW of wind
- 6 GW of gas-to-power
- 3.1 GW of battery storage
- 5.4 GW of distributed generation
These projects are intended to address South Africa’s immediate electricity shortages while laying the foundation for a cleaner grid.
By 2039, the longer-term vision expands these targets significantly as renewable technologies become a larger share of the country’s generation mix. Projects that align with these timelines are more likely to receive procurement opportunities, regulatory approvals and financing support. Perhaps the biggest change in IRP 2025 is how projects are evaluated. Previous planning focused heavily on the lowest-cost electricity. The new approach introduces a broader assessment that considers three objectives simultaneously:
- Cost.
- Reliability.
- Emissions reduction.
This means projects offering greater system value even if they are not the absolute cheapest can receive priority.
For example:
- Wind and solar paired with batteries become more attractive because they provide cleaner electricity while improving grid stability.
- Gas generation is included because it provides flexible backup when renewable output falls.
- Distributed generation receives greater emphasis because it reduces pressure on transmission infrastructure.
In other words, the plan values how electricity is delivered, not just how cheaply it can be generated. Generation is only one side of the equation. South Africa also needs a transmission network capable of moving electricity from renewable-rich regions to industrial and urban centres. IRP 2025 therefore links new generation directly to major grid investments.
Plans include:
- Approximately 14,500 kilometres of new transmission lines.
- A transmission expansion programme valued at around R440 billion.
- The rollout of the National Transmission Company South Africa (NTCSA).
- Greater private-sector participation through Independent Transmission Projects.
Projects located within priority transmission corridors are expected to have a significant advantage during future procurement rounds. IRP 2025 also determines which technologies receive government procurement support. Projects are most likely to move forward if they align with:
- Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme (REIPPPP).
- Battery Energy Storage Procurement Programme.
- Gas-to-power programmes.
- Distributed generation initiatives.
- Just Energy Transition objectives.
Developers whose projects fit these categories stand the best chance of securing approvals and financing. The biggest message behind IRP 2025 is that South Africa’s energy transition is becoming more strategic. The country is no longer asking only, “Which technology is cheapest?”
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Instead, it is asking:
- Which projects strengthen the grid?
- Which projects improve reliability?
- Which projects lower emissions?
- Which projects support long-term economic growth?
That broader perspective explains why batteries, transmission infrastructure, distributed solar and flexible gas generation now sit alongside large-scale wind and solar as national priorities. IRP 2025 is South Africa’s investment blueprint for the next generation of electricity infrastructure. By setting clear targets for wind, solar, storage, gas, nuclear and distributed generation and linking those targets to procurement programmes and transmission expansion, the plan determines which projects move from proposals to construction. The shift from a purely least-cost approach to a balanced model built around reliability, affordability and decarbonisation marks a significant evolution in how South Africa intends to build its future electricity system.
